A forward-looking index of economic indicators put out by The Conference Board is flashing warning signs of “economic slowdown.” 

The Leading Economic Index, or LEI, fell sharply in April by 1% after falling nearly that much in March. It was the largest one-month drop in more than two years.

The Conference Board isn’t warning of a recession — right now. But it does predict economic growth will downshift sharply this year to 1.6% (down from 2.8% in 2024). 

The Leading Economic Index crunches together 10 components on finance, labor, manufacturing and construction. And in April, most of those measures were declining.

That includes building permits, per Justyna Zabinska-LaMonica, a senior manager of business cycle indicators at the Conference Board.

“Building permits plummeted in April,” she said. “The builders, they’re not keen to start any new construction considering the current uncertainty.”

A lot of that uncertainty is tied to tariffs and the inflation that could result. The sharpest declines in the April LEI were clocked for stock prices and consumer expectations. 

“We already have consumers telling us that their incomes are weakening,” said Joanne Hsu, who directs the University of Michigan consumer surveys. “Two-thirds of consumers expecting unemployment rates to go up, and so the strong incomes that supported consumer spending after the pandemic, that’s just not the case anymore.”

Consumers are worried about future instability in their personal finances, Hsu added.